The Millennials have not given up on Home Ownership and fight they will!

No matter how much money you have to save for a down payment, buying a house is the easy part. It’s much harder to afford the endless financial demands of home ownership and find money for your other goals and obligations. (DARRYL DYCK For The Globe and Mail)

Rob Carrick

Excerpted from The Globe and Mail

Fear of missing out leaves millennials taking on big risk in housing market

ROB CARRICK

The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Apr. 28, 2016 7:14PM EDT

Last updated Sunday, May 01, 2016 10:39PM EDT

• 630

  630

Gen Y’s fear of missing out on home ownership is right on the money.

Month by month, affordability in the country’s hot markets is slipping away. Every year a first-time buyer waits could end up costing many thousands of dollars as higher prices flow through to bigger mortgage payments.

The average price of a home in Toronto increased to $688,181 at the end of March from $613,933 a year earlier, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows. That’s enough to increase the payments on a five-year mortgage at 2.59 per cent by $310 per month, or $18,600 in total over five years. In Vancouver, price increases over the same timespan result in extra mortgage costs of $616 per month and $36,960 over five years (assuming a 10 per cent down payment).

A recent survey from Toronto-Dominion Bank found that 19 per cent of Toronto and Vancouver home owners mentioned a fear of missing out – FOMO, as it’s known on social media – as a top consideration in buying their first home. FOMO is a totally understandable emotion in our housing-obsessed society, and it’s justified by the fundamentals in the hottest markets. Guaranteed, we’re going to see more FOMO home buying. By necessity, a lot of it will only happen with parental financial help.

Let’s understand what we’re getting into here. Almost everyone who ever bought a home thought he or she was making a leap into the unknown. But today’s millennial FOMO buyers are taking on unprecedented levels of risk.

They will have to devote a high proportion of their household earnings to housing costs compared to previous generations, while bearing extra responsibility to save for retirement. Compared to the baby boom generations, fewer millennials will work in jobs with company pensions.

Today’s first-time buyers must also adjust to a slow-growth economy and its impact on the steady year-by-year increase in prosperity we’ve come to expect. It’s best to plan for economic serendipity – bonuses, raises, promotions – to be a rarer occurrence than in previous eras.

A weak economy is keeping interest rates low, and that should continue for a while yet. But if you buy a house today with a 25-year amortization, you have to be prepared for at least modestly higher borrowing costs along the way. People who bought in the 1980s and early 1990s had to contend with shockingly high interest rates, but they got to renew at steadily lower rates over time. The only way we will get lower rates than we have today is if the economy implodes.

Something we’ll call “location risk” must also be considered by FOMO buyers. Houses in suburbia and beyond offer more affordable mortgage payments, but also grinding and expensive commutes that can degrade your quality of life. Other FOMO risks present themselves in the buying process – getting caught up in bidding wars that can only be won with expensive bully offers and waiving sensible conditions in purchase offers like a home inspection. If you’re stretching your finances to the limit in buying, you need every advantage possible in knowing your house’s weak spots.

Emotionally, there’s an additional risk in the form of a possible correction in house prices. If you buy a house today and commit to staying 10-plus years, price declines in the next few years likely won’t mean much in the long run. But in the near term, things could get stressful at home if your FOMO purchase is followed by a market decline.

FOMO buying is a high-risk proposition, but you can’t deny the logic. While some housing markets across the country remain affordable, Toronto, Vancouver and nearby cities are running away from first-time buyers. Few people will discuss this by-product of hot housing. Too many still operate on the idea that buying a first house is always a stretch, but nothing insurmountable if you save diligently and buy sensibly.

The FOMO narrative undersells the damage done by hot markets. Young people aren’t missing out – they’re being incrementally squeezed out by price increases that make mortgages more expensive to carry. Unless millennials work in lucrative jobs or have parents who do, ownership is a struggle some won’t win without compromises like living far from work or sharing a house with friends or family.

Those who do get into the housing market today could be the most precarious generation of buyers ever. All the easy money’s been made in housing, while the risks of owning multiply.

Home Prices Rise As Listings Sink!

Prices surge, listings sink: Average detached Toronto home nears $1.2-million

Michael Babad

The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Apr. 05, 2016 7:00AM EDT

Last updated Tuesday, Apr. 05, 2016 1:38PM EDT

Excerpted from The Globe and Mail

• 239

  212

Home prices surge

The average price of a detached house in Toronto is nearing the $1.2-million mark.

Across the Greater Toronto Area, according to statistics released today, average prices for all types of homes surged 12.1 per cent in March from a year earlier, bringing first-quarter gains to 13.6 per cent.

The MLS home price index, considered a better gauge, rose 11.6 per cent in March, the Toronto Real Estate Board said.

The numbers come amid growing concern that the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets appear frothy, and recent statistics showing mounting household debt, particularly on the mortgage side.

At the same time, though, some observers say that the pace of both employment and household formation in Toronto should ease those fears.

Affordability is clearly an issue, with bidding wars and fewer listings driving prices ever higher.

“Demand was clearly not an issue in the first three months of 2016, regardless of the housing market segment being considered,” Jason Mercer, the group’s director of market analysis, said in unveiling the March numbers.

“The supply of listings, however, continued to aggravate many would-be home buyers,” he added.

“We could have experienced even stronger sales growth were not for the constrained supply of listings, especially in the low-rise market segments. The resulting strong competition between buyers has underpinned the double-digit rates of price growth experienced so far this year.”

Indeed, new listings across the area fell in March by 3.7 per cent, and active listings by a sharp 20.7 per cent. Sales surged 16.2 per cent in the month, and 15.8 per cent in the quarter.

The average price of a detached home now stands at $910,375.

It differs across the greater area, of course.

In the 416 telephone area code region, the average price of a detached home is now $1.17-million, while that in the 905 is $837,217.

Is the March mini-boom in real estate true or is it a myth?

In a few more days it will be March 2016 and you probably have heard of something commonly called the March mini-boom. Read more-



The above chart shows the average Home Resale Prices for 2012-2015 or 4 years and you will note that the upward trend in prices more distinctly starts in March. Click picture to enlarge.

Last year a listing in the $500K range that was put in the market towards the end of May instead of March would have gotten the seller $40K more if the seller opted to put it in the market earlier as he lost the momentum of the upward trend in prices. Contact Alex for questions 416 8875193.

GTA Home Sales Again At Record-Breaking Pace With No sign Of Ending!

Toronto Star

Business

GTA real estate sales hit record high in February

Excerpted from The Toronto Star

The Toronto Real Estate Board says there were 7,621 sales in February, up from 6,294, an increase of 21.1 per cent.

Darren Calabrese / CP

The Toronto Real Estate Board says that 2015 was a record sales year for its members, with 101,299 sales through TREB realtors through the year.

By: The Canadian Press, Published on Thu Mar 03 2016

Real estate sales in the Greater Toronto Area hit a record high last month, even after accounting for the extra day because of the leap year.

The Toronto Real Estate Board says there were 7,621 sales in February, up from 6,294, an increase of 21.1 per cent.

About two-thirds of the sales were outside the city of Toronto, itself, where there were 2,809 sales, an increase from 2,352 in the same month last year.

Average prices were also up, hitting $719,843 in Toronto, itself, and $665,100 in the rest of the GTA.

Toronto and other parts of the real estate market in southern Ontario were among the hottest in Canada last year, trailing only Vancouver and parts of B.C.’s Lower Mainland region.

Vancouver’s realtors announced Wednesday that sales in that city also set a record in February, with 4,172 homes sold, up 36 per cent from the same month last year.

Realtor Royal LePage says it expects Canada’s real estate market to slow this year due to eroding affordability in Toronto and Vancouver and the fallout from declining oil prices in Western Canada.

In its latest report, the realtor says the average price of a Canadian home increased 6.5 per cent to $500,688 in the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the same period on 2014.

The average cost of a two-storey home nationwide climbed to $610,134 in the quarter, up nearly eight per cent compared with the previous year.

The price of a bungalow rose 5.4 per cent year-over-year to $420,082, while the average price of a condo grew 3.1 per cent to $341,448.

Royal LePage says it expects the average cost of a Canadian home to rise by a more moderate 4.1 per cent over the course of 2016.

Where is the hottest real estate in the GTA? East end or west? Find out!

Toronto Star

Business / Real Estate

Excerpted from The Toronto Star               

Toronto’s east end has the hottest real estate in the city

Homes north of Danforth Ave. and east of the Don has the shortest sale times in Toronto, according to TREB data.

Linda Ing-Gilbert

106 Woodmount Ave. sold for $681,700 after just six days on the market. The asking price for the three-bedroom semi-detached home was $599,900.

By: Robin Levinson King Staff Reporter, Published on Wed Feb 03 2016

The trendiest neighbourhoods in Toronto aren’t in the trendy west end, but the east.

Homes north of Danforth Ave. and east of the Don River are selling fast, according to data provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board. The area, which encompasses posh Playter Estates to the west and rough-around-the edges Woodbine-Lumsden further east, boasts the shortest sale times in the city, with homes averaging a mere 12 days on the market compared to a city-wide average of 21 days.

To the south, Leslieville, Riverside and Riverdale came a close second, with homes averaging 13 days on the market.

Over the past decade, sale times across the city have been declining despite soaring home prices.

The median price of a Toronto home — stand-alone houses and condos combined — was $643,145 in 2015, compared to about $341,450 in 2005.

Yet in 2015, homes typically spent 21 days on the market, down 10 days from 2005 when they took a full month to sell. It’s a trend that has touched almost every corner of the city. The only areas that did not see a decrease in sale time were neighbourhoods around the Annex, Casa Loma and Wychwood.

Toronto realtor Desmond Brown said that low interest rates and population growth mean that there are more buyers than available homes, so most properties get snapped up fast.

“I think it’s basic supply and demand,” he said. “Good inventory is at a premium.”

That’s great news for sellers, especially for those north of the Danforth who bought at a low price and can now reap the benefits of a decade’s gentrification. Over the past ten years, the median value of homes north of the Danforth has increased 132 per cent, from $288,500 in 2005 to $608,500 in 2015.

“We’ve seen higher prices there, or even bidding wars, because it’s about supply,” said real-estate agent Linda Ing-Gilbert.

A recent listing, a three-bedroom semi at 106 Woodmount Ave., sold in six days for $681,700, more than $80,000 over asking. Ing-Gilbert, who grew up around the Danforth, said the area is often the last refuge for affordable family homes for many in the city.

Most of the bidders for the home west of Woodbine Ave. were first-time home buyers, she said, or young couples looking to upgrade from a condo.

“I think every single woman was pregnant,” Ing-Gilbert said.

Many start out hoping to buy in the more trendy west end, Ing-Gilbert said, but soon come to realize you can get the same amenities — access to the subway, schools and good restaurants — for about 10 per cent less in the east.

But there’s a price to pay for affordability, and that’s popularity, said Brown. Everybody loves a bargain, which means it can take buyers a few tries to land an east-end starter home.

Conversely, homes in neighbourhoods like the Annex can take a bit longer to unload.

“It’s a simple explanation — there aren’t as many buyers for the high-end properties,” he said.

New Mortgage Rules Now In Effect! - 5 Things To Know!

New mortgage rules kick in

Alexandra Posadzki, THE CANADIAN PRESS

First posted: Monday, February 15, 2016 12:13 PM EST | Updated: Monday, February 15, 2016 02:49 PM EST 

Excerpted from The Toronto Sun

(Fotolia)

TORONTO -- Canadians looking to buy homes between $500,000 and $1 million will have to put down larger down payments as new federal rules took effect Monday.
Under the changes, homebuyers must now put at least 10% down on the portion of a home that costs more than $500,000.
Buyers can still put down 5% on the first $500,000 of a home purchase. Homes that cost more than $1 million still require a 20% down payment.
Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, says the new rules aim to slow the breakneck pace of price growth in the red-hot markets of Toronto and Vancouver without affecting markets that are lagging, such as those in oil-dependent provinces.
"The problem with monetary policy is that it impacts the struggling Calgary market or the just fine Winnipeg market and the overheated Vancouver market in equal amounts," Soper said.
"If you lower interest rates, you lower interest rates for all. And that's not what the country needed. This change ... is the first attempt to recognize the fact that some parts of the country are in need of a mild tap on the break, while other parts of the country really need to continue to receive stimulus."
When the new rules were announced in December, Finance Minister Bill Morneau said he estimated they would affect about 1% of the overall real estate market. Some industry observers predicted a surge in sales activity as homebuyers would look to pre-empt bigger down payment requirements.
Soper says real estate markets in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec have been "boisterous" in the first five weeks of the year -- but he says it's unlikely that the new mortgage rules are responsible.
"I think it has much more to do with clean sidewalks from a mild winter and low mortgage rates than it does with impending changes that tweak mortgage insurance regulations," Soper said.
"It's just not a big enough change to have materially impacted home sales volumes in the country."
Ottawa tightened rules for new insurable loans four times between 2008 and 2012, including upping the minimum down payment to 5% and reducing the maximum amortization period in stages to 25 years from 40 years.
FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEW MORTGAGE RULES
Cough up the cash: Homebuyers now have to put at least a down payment of 10% on the portion of the price of a home over $500,000. For anyone buying a home for $700,000 -- a common list price in Vancouver and Toronto -- that means the minimum down payment will rise to $45,000 from $35,000. Any home under $500,000 still requires only a down payment of 5%.
Who's affected: Primarily those shopping for a home in Toronto and Vancouver. First-time buyers in those cities will feel the pinch since they'll be required to put down bigger down payments to get into the market. Those selling their homes in order to size up, especially in cities with hot housing markets, likely won't feel the pain since they've built up equity in those properties.
Impact: The influence the new rules will have over house prices is expected to be small, experts say, given their narrow reach. When he announced the changes in December, Finance Minister Bill Morneau said they are expected to affect 1% or less of the real estate market.
Sales activity: Some analysts expected a surge in sales leading up to Monday's changes, saying they would lure homebuyers who wanted to avoid making the bigger down payments. Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper says sales activity has been "boisterous" in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec in the first five weeks of this year, but he credits a relatively mild winter and low mortgage rates.
Past measures: Four rounds of changes were made to tighten eligibility rules for new insurable loans between 2008 and 2012. Among them: the minimum down payment was increased to 5%, the maximum amortization period was reduced in stages to 25 years from 40 years and the maximum insurable house price was limited to below $1 million.

Is It The Right Time To Invest In Condos?

January 29, 2016
Excerpted from The Globe and Mail

Price gap between Toronto houses and condos expected to shrink

By TAMSIN McMAHON

Divide between condos and houses could narrow with more low-rise housing projects and cooling market

The price gap between condos and houses soared 50 per cent last year in the Greater Toronto Area as values of single-family homes skyrocketed, while the condo market flatlined.
But industry analysts expect that divide to start shrinking over the next several years as local municipalities green-light several long-awaited low-rise housing projects and the condo market cools off from years of record-breaking construction.
Sales of new single-family homes in the GTA jumped 8 per cent last year to more than 19,600, while sales of new condos fell 2 per cent to about 21,600, according to an analysis by commercial real estate firm Altus Group.
The red-hot market for new single-family home construction pushed up prices by 18 per cent last year to an average of $829,766.
By the end of December, there were fewer than 5,000 homes for sale on the low-rise market in the GTA, a historic low. Meanwhile, condo prices were flat from a year earlier, averaging $453,083. The diverging trends helped to drive a $376,000 wedge between prices for new condos and houses.
However, that could begin to change over the next few years, as condominium construction slows down, the high-rise market in downtown Toronto shifts in favour of rental apartments and developers turn their eyes back to the lucrative market for detached houses and townhomes.
"Certainly over the last three or four years we've swung the ship too far away from single-family," said Peter Norman, vice-president and chief economist at Altus.
Sales of residential development land in the GTA surged nearly 50 per cent to more than $4-billion last year, driven in part by a jump in sales of land in the 905 region intended for low-density subdivisions, which reached their highest level in more than a decade.
There were 71 high-rise residential land sales in the region in the first three quarters of last year, down from 80 in the same period a year earlier, Colliers International reported. In contrast, sales of single-family and townhouse developments rose from 29 to 35.
Some of the biggest land deals in the GTA were in the suburbs. A consortium of developers paid more than $400-million for the York Downs Golf and Country Club in Markham, while another buyer paid more than $100-million for a low-rise development site in Richmond Hill. York Region alone saw roughly $1-billion worth of residential land deals last year, according to Colliers International.
Municipalities have taken time to adjust to changes in provincial legislation aimed at increasing density and protecting environmentally sensitive lands in Southern Ontario, leaving many proposed low-rise housing projects sitting in limbo. Others have been waiting for major infrastructure upgrades and some have endured public opposition and lengthy battles before the Ontario Municipal Board.
"It has been a rocky road getting there right now," Mr. Norman said. "I think there are many developers who have wanted to bring forward single-family homes many years ago, but it just simply hasn't happened."
Several projects are starting to wind their way through the red tape. Earlier this month, the provincial government agreed to sell hundreds of acres of land in Pickering, known as the Seaton lands, helping to green-light low-rise subdivisions that have been decades in the making.
"We'll be building homes there for 20 years," said Jason Attard vice-president of sales and marketing at GTA home builder Aspen Ridge Homes. "So that is definitely going to help solve some of the supply issues."
While construction of single-family homes is readying for a comeback, the GTA condo market is shifting away from investors and toward buyers who are interested in living in their units, said Jim Ritchie, head of sales and marketing at condo developer Tridel Group of Companies. That will likely mean larger units sold at higher prices, which should also help close the price gap in the region.
Mr. Norman predicts the number of new detached homes for sale in the Toronto metropolitan area to jump 30 per cent next year to 13,000.
Over time, he thinks the number of condo starts, which have averaged 19,500 over the past five years, will to fall closer to 17,000 to 18,000 units, a level more consistent with demand. Meanwhile, levels of low-rise home construction should rise from about 16,500 to closer to 22,000.
"It's tipping the balance back," he said.