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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Canadian Interest Rates Will Stay Low, But Bank of canada Says it Overestimated Growth

Excerpted from The Toronto Star
Canadian interest rates will stay low, but Bank of Canada says it overestimated growth
Published on Wednesday January 23, 2013
Les Whittington
Staff Reporter
OTTAWA—Canadians can expect current low borrowing costs to continue for the near future after the Bank of Canada Tuesday signaled that slower-than-expected economic growth and a shift in consumer buying habits have taken any urgency out of raising interest rates.Mark Carney, the central bank governor, kept the bank’s trend-setting overnight interest rate at 1 per cent as expected. It’s been over two years since the bank raised the key rate.

“Caution about high debt levels has begun to restrain household spending,” Carney said in a statement accompanying Wednesday’s rate decision. The governor has been urging Canadians for months to stop running up record levels of debt. “The Bank expects trend growth in household credit to moderate further,” Carney added.

This shift, along with weaker-than-forecast domestic economic activity and a flat inflation outlook, led the bank to revise its usual statement on its future strategy to reflect the view that higher rates are not likely any time soon. In a major shift in outlook, the bank said any attempt to push up borrowing costs to head off a burst of inflation “is less imminent than previously anticipated.”

The bank said economic growth in Canada is expected to be less pronounced than Carney predicted in October. At that time, the bank forecast growth in 2012 would come in at 2.2 per cent, but it now says the final tally for last year will come in at 1.9 per cent. For 2013, the bank now says the economy will expand at 2 per cent, down from the 2.3 per cent predicted a few months ago.

The slower-than-forecast growth in Canada stemmed from “weaker business investment” and weak demand for Canada’s exports — as well as a bit more caution on the part of Canadian consumers, the bank said.

The global outlook is not as upbeat as expected a few months ago, with economic expansion in the U.S. continuing at a gradual pace and Europe mired in recession, Carney said. While growth in China is improving, the economies of some other major emerging market countries have slowed.
For Carney, who leaves the bank in mid-2013 to take over the top job at the Bank of England, it was one of his last few interest-rates settings at Canada’s central bank. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 6.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Seven Secrets to Finding a Good Handyman- and Avoid Reno Hell

Excerpted drom The Globe and Mail
Seven secrets to finding a good handyman – and avoiding reno hell

Andrea Cornish

Published Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2013 05:00AM EST

Last updated Tuesday, Jan. 22, 2013 05:34AM EST

The following article is from Canadian Real Estate Wealth Magazine.
Hunting for the right handyman to help you with your next home improvement? The search is easier than you think A good handyman is an important player on any real estate investors’ team. Having someone you trust for renovations and can depend on in an emergency will really make a difference to your portfolio’s potential – not to mention your stress levels.
So who do you turn to when you’re looking to renovate or repair a property? Here’s a simple guide to finding the right (handy) man for the job.
1) Who’s who.
Before you start looking for home improvement help it’s a good idea to figure which type of professional is best suited to the job. “A handyman doesn’t have a trade license, he knows a little bit about everything,” says Jim Caruk, master contractor of The Caruk Group. “What you have to understand is a contractor doesn’t necessarily have to be a tradesman either. He contracts everything out and he makes sure that the people he brings in are licensed tradespeople – that’s his job.”
If you’re planning a large project that requires the expertise of a number of different professionals then you’re better off looking for a qualified general contracting company. Smaller jobs are usually best suited to a handyman who has a broad range of skills and extensive experience, but is not necessarily licensed.
2) Where to look.
There are several ways to find a good handyman or contractor, says David Foster, director of environmental affairs for the Canadian Home Builders’ Association. “There are some companies that specialize in this, and the time-tested method is asking friends, neighbours and family who they use and would recommend.”
He also suggests checking with HBA websites for “RenoMark” contractors. These contractors are members of the CHBA association and comply with the association’s code of ethics, as well as renovation-specific codes of conduct. In addition they provide warranties, meet regularly to keep up to date with current trends, materials and regulations. Caruk also suggests looking at contractors’ signs in the neighbourhood. “If you see a lot of their signs then obviously they’re on the up and up and you would think that they do good work if everyone keeps hiring them.”
3) What to ask the contractor.
When calling around, there are some key questions to ask that will help you narrow down your search.
· References – ask for at least three names
· Licensing – Licenses expire annually; so you’ll need to look at it to make sure the license is still valid. A license does not guarantee the contractor is a quality tradesperson. Foster adds, “Licensing and so forth varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction – consumers should check with their municipal building department to determine if any local licensing is required.”
· Insurance – Business liability and WSIS insurance is a must, says Foster. If the contractor doesn’t have valid insurance coverage, you can request him or her to buy temporary insurance. Alternatively real estate expert Paul Hecht suggests having your lawyer draft a general release that stipulates the contractor fully understands that they are responsible for any accident and damage and cannot sue you. This will protect you should something break on your property or there is an injury.
4) What to ask referrers.
Whether you’re asking friends for references, or checking out the list of names provided by the handyman, there are several questions to ask that will help you determine if you’ve found the right person for the job.
· Have you personally used them?
· How many times have you worked with them?
· What did the job entail?
· Did the project start on time?
· Was the work completed on time?
· Was it on budget?
· Were there any problems?
· Would you use them again?
· Are you getting a referrer’s fee?
5) How to get the best estimate.
Price plays a major part in deciding whom to hire. Provide each home improvement professional with the same information. This may include: plans (with simple sketches or full construction drawings), and detailed descriptions of materials and products. According to Caruk they should all be within 10 per cent to 15 per cent of each other. “If you’ve got four or five and you’ve got one that’s really, really high and one that’s really, really low what you usually do is discard the highest and lowest one and work with the three guys in between. Then go with your gut feeling.” Caruk warns homeowners not to get too carried away getting estimates. “If you start getting 10, it just makes it more confusing.”
There is also a risk of alienating good professionals. Caruk usually asks how many others are bidding for the job and if there are more than five he won’t even provide a quote. According to the CHBA, a written offer becomes legally binding and becomes part of the contract between you and the handyman should you accept it. That said there are always unexpected challenges in any project. Make sure you set aside a contingency fund in your budget.
6) What to expect from the contract.
The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation suggests a typical contract might include:
· Description of the work to be done – make this as detailed as possible. Include: prep work, items to be salvaged or reused, waste disposal, structural details, product information, size and location of things like doors, windows, closets and finishing work such as coats of paint and stain.
· Any permits needed and who is responsible for providing and paying for them
· Supplies and materials
· Sub contractors (if needed)
· Timing – when work is to commence and full completion date
· Terms of payment – fixed cost basis, cost plus or cost plus fixed fee
· Payment schedule – Never pay huge sums of money upfront. Some contractors will ask for a down payment as a show of good faith – on average this is about $2,500. Additional payments should be based on the work completed, not time put into the job
· Extras and how they will be calculated
· Washroom facilities and Utilities
· Standards of work (level of clean-up, hours permitted on site)
· Third-party liability insurance details
· Compliance with Workers’ Compensation and other laws
· Warranty
· Default by owner or contractor – indicates what happens if either owner or contractor defaults on terms of contract
· Dispute resolution – an agreed upon process to deal with potential conflicts
7) How to manage your handyman.
The contract forms the basis of your relationship with your contractor or handyman. According to Foster, “In all situations, effective management of a contractor requires clarity about what they are being hired to do, how and when they will do it, what their services will cost and when payment will be due, and what warranty do they provide on their work. It needs to be in writing. Every time. Period.” Once the job is underway, communication and mutual respect will play a vital role in keeping things rolling along smoothly. A good handyman or contractor should not make you feel uncomfortable for asking questions.
On the other side, try to be reasonable with your expectations. The CMHC advises homeowners, “Don’t overreact if something is wrong. Allow sufficient time for a response. As well, things the contractor can’t control, like bad weather and back-ordered components, can delay the job, so leave a little leeway in your schedule for them.” If things start to go pear-shaped, follow the dispute resolution method outlined in the contract. And if all else fails, you can cancel the contract. However, this will likely result in a cancellation fee. Be aware that there are several laws protecting consumers, which vary across the provinces and territories.
In addition to contacting your consumer protection authority, you can also get in touch with the Better Business Bureau. If legal action is necessary, you can take the contractor to small claims court. Small claims are less complicated than a formal court case and do not require the services of a lawyer. Decision in small claims courts are binding.
How to spot a handyman from hell
•Bad presentation – Late for your initial meeting? Reluctant to answer questions? Vague about the technical aspects of how they’d handle the job? These are all indications that they might not be capable or trustworthy
•Poor communication skills – Communication is absolutely vital to the success of any project. You need someone that is willing to listen to our ideas, concerns and suggestions and who in turn, is able to effectively discuss challenges with you as they come up
•Requests cash only payments – Don’t be tempted if they offer a discount to you if you pay in cash. You want to keep as much of a paper trail as possible and all payments should be cheques or certified cheques
•Doesn’t provide receipts – make sure you get a receipt for all your payments, signed and dated by the contractor
•Does not want signage – Many renovation companies ask to promote their services to your neighbours by displaying signs on the property. According to the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, if the company does not want to display a sign, it could be an indication it is trying to avoid scrutiny

From Canadian Real Estate Wealth Magazine, a monthly publication focused on building value through property investment, covering topics such as values and trends, mortgages, investment strategies, surveys of regional markets and general tips for buyers and sellers.

© 2013 The Globe and Mail Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Housing Market Decline in Sales, Toronto House Prices Up 6% in December

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Canadian housing market ‘defying gravity and logic’ with 17.4 per cent decline in sales in December

Published on Tuesday January 15, 2013
Susan Pigg
Business Reporter
So far it’s looking like a soft landing for Canada’s housing market, analysts, economists and realtors generally agree, despite the fact home sales were down 17.4 per cent in December over a year earlier, according to figures released Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
With prices up an average 1.6 per cent across Canada in December year over year — six per cent in Toronto — housing experts are looking to the spring market, the busiest time of year for home sales, as the best barometer of where the housing market is ultimately headed.

So far it is “defying gravity and logic,” says Queen’s University real estate expert John Andrew.
“It appears that sellers are refusing to drop their prices, clinging to the elevated home prices they have grown accustomed to,” while buyers have headed for the sidelines, anticipating that interest rates will remain stable but house prices drop.

“The result is standoff between vendors and buyers, and homes are simply not changing hands.”
The cooling of the Canadian market — with the most pronounced downturns in sales hitting Vancouver (31.1 per cent year over year in December) and Toronto (down almost 22 per cent annually) — “is just what the doctor ordered,” says Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri.
Just since July, when Ottawa introduced tighter mortgage lending rules restricting amortizations to 25 years instead of 30, house sales across Canada have declined 6.6 per cent.
According to the CREA figures, almost every major Canadian city saw double-digit sales declines, with the exception of booming Calgary where sales were up in December 7.2 per cent year-over-year.

Prices were up in Calgary by 6.9 per cent, outstripped only by Regina (up 15.9 per cent last month over December, 2011) and London/St. Thomas (up 12.3 per cent.)
With a typical house in Toronto now costing about seven times median income, and a staggering 10 times median income in Vancouver, the cooling of the market should allow wages to start to catch up, says Guatieri.

“We’re coming off a decade-long housing boom in this country, and for sales to still remain this strong is pretty good.

“If we do see the spring market roaring back, in some ways we would be comforted, but I think we’d be more worried about the possibility of a bubble and that could trigger a further tightening of mortgage rules which could hit as interest rates do start to move up over the next few years.”
Housing analyst Ben Rabidoux agrees “the spring market is going to be huge” in terms of telling where the market is heading. He thinks it’s too early to know if Vancouver and Toronto can avoid hard landings and substantial price declines, given baby boomers aren’t driving sales in big numbers anymore and the new mortgage rules have knocked buyers out of the market.
“It’s a soft landing at this point, but if we continue to see sales trends (downward) like this, it will impact prices.

“A soft landing and a crash both start the same way.”

Excerpted from The Globe and Mail
Top Business Stories

Home sales plunge, market 'clearly in correction mode'

 

These are stories Report on Business is following Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2013.
Follow Michael Babad and the Globe’s top business stories on Twitter.
Housing cools
Canada's housing market continues to cool markedly, with sales plunging 17.4 per cent in December from a year earlier. Prices, however, still held up, with a gain of 1.6 per cent from December, 2011.
The MLS Home Price Index, which factors out changes in the types of properties sold, rose 3.3 per cent from a year earlier, marking the slowest growth since April, 2011, The Globe and Mail's Tara Perkins reports.

For 2012 as a whole, sales of 452,372 slipped 1.1 per cent from a year earlier, and were 1.4 per cent below a 10-year average to 2011.

Sales in December fell in four of every five housing markets measured, the real estate group said, with Calgary the standout exception.

Canada’s housing market can best be plotted on two timelines: pre-Flaherty and post-Flaherty. And for many, the post-Flaherty era is a good thing.

Sales have slipped since Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty brought in new mortgage restrictions in July in an attempt to engineer the slowdown we're now seeing, and most observers expect a soft landing, not a crash.

“National sales activity continues to hold fairly steady at lower levels since mortgage rules were changed earlier in 2012, but there are still some real differences in trends between and within local housing markets,” said CREA president Wayne Moen.

The Toronto area saw the biggest drop in New listings, the group said, but they also slumped in fully half of all markets, including, and as expected, the Vancouver area, the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island.

Vancouver, in particular, has taken it on the chin, and observers believe it is the one market to have gone beyond a soft landing.

“The decline in new supply may reflect purchase offers below asking price that are made to sellers who are under no pressure to sell. Instead they choose to take their homes off the market once their listing expires,” said CREA's chief economist, Gregory Klump. “In the absence of economic stresses like a spike in interest rates or a sharp drop in employment, this dynamic can be expected to keep the housing market in balance.“Home sales are expected to continue at a lower level, as is construction of new homes. The average price in Canada still climbed to $352,800 in December. If you take out Vancouver and Toronto, CREA said, the national average would be 3.3 per cent.
"Canada’s housing market is clearly in correction mode as we had been warning would occur well before the figures began to roll over," Derek Holt and Dov Zigler of Bank of Nova Scotia said before the CREA report.

As for inventory, the supply of unsold homes would take almost 7 months to deplete, but that hasn't changed much since late 2010, said senior economist Sonya Gulati of Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Ms. Gulati expects the market will stabilize now over the next few months, and that the impact of Mr. Flaherty's changes are now priced in.

"When looking at previous mortgage rule tightening episodes, the housing market impacts have been temporary in nature," she said. "There is no reason to think that this time will be any different."
Both the sales-to-listings ratio and the timeline for unsold inventory are within a normal range, she added, though at some point prices will slip.

"When we compare prices to other standard metrics like price-to-income, we still believe that prices have deviated from underlying economic fundamentals. With this in mind, house prices will likely resume their trek downwards once higher interest rates come into effect in the fourth quarter of 2013."