Fri., Feb. 10, 2017
There’s a housing supply shortage looming in the Toronto area. That’s the warning the head of the association for new home builders has been issuing every chance he gets in recent months.
Even with a “making-it-happen attitude” it will take five to seven years to get the supply of new homes up to a healthy level again, said Bryan Tuckey of the Building and Land Development Association (BILD).
The inventory of new homes for sale in the Toronto region has sunk to historic lows, he said. There are various reasons, including lengthy provincial approval times for water and waste water servicing that’s required before a single toilet can be flushed in a new neighbourhood.
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Figures from the Toronto Real Estate Board suggest a similar shortage exists on the
resale market. People aren’t listing their homes because they worry about what they’ll be able to afford among the region’s soaring prices.
If government and builders don’t figure something out soon, Toronto is heading down the road of cities like London and San Francisco, says Tuckey.
“You have the most affluent parts of British society not being able to afford a home in London or in San Francisco where we see jobs being lost because people can’t afford to live in communities where they want to work and play and live,” he said.
The census data released Wednesday reinforce his concerns, said Tuckey.
It shows Toronto’s population grew 6.2 per cent between 2011 and 2016, above the national average of 5 per cent. But that growth was exceeded by several communities outside the city including Brampton, Caledon, King, Markham and Bradford.
For the second consecutive census, Milton has proved to be the GTA town with the biggest boom. It registered 30 per cent population growth in the census period.
“We talk a lot about Toronto, and still, about 65 to 70 per cent of the growth is going to be outside Toronto. Plus, it’s family oriented growth, so communities like Oakville, Brampton, Milton, Bradford, West Gwillimbury where growth was intended to happen,” said Tuckey.
He’s not surprised that those families want what the industry calls ground-related homes — townhomes, semi-detached and detached houses.
Some will happily sacrifice space for affordability. Tuckey calls townhomes the new single-family home even though they don’t usually have big yards for the kids to play.
To get that ground-related property, many are moving outside the city to the booming 905-area communities.
In Milton, three-storey stacked townhomes and the more traditional two-storey towns with basements are the highest demand category among home buyers, said Royal LePage agent Amy Flowers, whose business is flourishing in the town that now stands at a population of just over 110,000.
Those homes run between $500,000 and $600,000 on average for about 1,200 square feet of living space.
Toronto buyers in search of the holy grail of GTA housing are typically paying between about $750,000 and $800,000 for that detached house with a yard, said Flowers.
“Our buyer demographic is interesting,” she said. “We’re one of the only towns in the country where our median age is actually going down.”
In little more than a decade, the influx of families has transformed Milton. The old theatre has closed in favour of a multiplex near the highway. There’s a Wal-Mart.
When Flowers moved into town about 15 years ago, it took about 10 minutes to drive across Milton. Now, with traffic, it is double that.
When it comes to buying homes, Milton has its share of big-league competition. On Thursday there were only 68 freehold listings and eight condos listed on the TREB’s Multiple Listings Service for Milton. Of those, four of the houses and half the condos were already conditionally sold.
Like Toronto, list prices have pretty much lost any bearing on the final sale amount and competitive offers are routine, said Flowers.
